CORONAVIRUS cases in the UK could hit 50,000 by mid-October if weekly case numbers continue to double, the chief scientific advisor has warned.

There are fears Britain could see 200 deaths a day a month later if the current rate of infection is not halted, the Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has warned.

Sir Patrick said the “vast majority of the population remain susceptible” to catching coronavirus and the current situation required swift action to bring the case numbers down.

Ledbury Reporter:

In a televised press conference together with England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick said there was “no doubt” the UK was in a situation where the numbers were increasing among all age groups.

He said: “At the moment, we think that the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.”

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Prof Whitty said there was a need to “break unnecessary links” between households and there was a need to “change course”.

Britain stands at a “critical point” in the coronavirus pandemic, Prof Whitty warned, as he laid the ground for tough new controls in an urgent attempt to halt the surge in infections.

The chief medical officer for England said the country faces a very challenging winter, with the current trend heading in “the wrong direction”.

Ledbury Reporter:

He said the numbers were not a prediction, but the current doubling of cases every seven days could lead to a much higher numbers of cases and deaths.

In mid-September, around 3,000 new cases were recorded every day in the UK, he said.

“If – and that’s quite a big if – but if that continues unabated and this grows, doubling every seven days, then what you see, of course, let’s say there were 5,000 today, it would be 10,000 next week, 20,000 the week after, 40,000 the week after, and you can see that by mid-October, if that continued, you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October, per day.”

He said the “50,000 cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November, say, to 200-plus deaths per day.

“The challenge therefore is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days.”

Sir Patrick said it was not the case that a rise in coronavirus in the UK was down to more testing being carried out.

“Could that increase be due to increased testing? The answer is no. We see an increase in positivity of the tests done – so we see the proportion of people testing positive has increased, even if testing stays flat.”

The scientist said less than 8% of the population had been infected, adding that antibodies faded over time, with cases of people becoming reinfected.

Prof Whitty hinted at curbs to social lives being needed to prevent coronavirus spiralling out of control, saying there was a need to “break unnecessary links” between households and a need to “change course”.

He said there were four things to do – washing hands and using masks, quarantine measures, and investing in vaccines and drugs.

Screengrab of the Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance (left) and chief medical officer Chris Whitty speaking at the Downing Street briefing (PA)

“The third one, and in many ways the most difficult, is that we have to break unnecessary links between households because that is the way in which this virus is transmitted,” he said.

“And this means reducing social contacts whether they are at work, and this is where we have enormous gratitude to all the businesses for example who have worked so hard to make their environments Covid-secure to reduce the risk, and also in social environments.

“We all know we cannot do this without some significant downsides.

“This is a balance of risk between if we don’t do enough the virus will take off – and at the moment that is the path we’re clearly on – and if we do not change course we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem.”

Prof Whitty warned the country should be braced for a tough winter.

He said: “At this point the seasons are against us, we’re now going into the seasons – late autumn and winter – which benefit respiratory viruses, and it is very likely they will benefit Covid, as they do, for example, flu.

“So we should see this as a six-month problem that we have to deal with collectively, it’s not indefinite.”

Prof Whitty suggested that science would eventually “ride to our rescue” but “in this period of the next six months, I think we have to realise that we have to take this collectively, very seriously”.