Will Herefordshire be Covid hotspot when schools go back?

The data has been produced by the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, in conjunction with its mathematics department.

It predicts the probability of local authorities recording at least 100 cases per 100,000 people over the coming weeks and becoming a 'hotspot' on its map.

The website predicts a 23 per cent chance of Herefordshire having this amount by the week ending Sunday, March 14 – the week measures on reopening of schools and social mixing are eased.

This is based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.

Currently, it predicts a 21 per cent chance of the local authority having 100 cases per 100,000 people by the week ending Saturday, March 6.

The map from scientists at Imperial College London

The neighbouring county of Powys has a three per cent chance of having an infection rate of 100 in the seven days to Sunday, March 14, but Wales will ease coronavirus lockdown measures at different times to England.

In the same week, Malvern Hills has a 30 per cent chance of being a Covid-19 hotpot in the week to March 14, Shropshire has a 22 per cent chance, Worcester has a 19 per cent chance, and there's a two per cent chance in the Forest of Dean.

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All of these prediction for March 14 are lower than the week before, apart from the Forest of Dean which is the same.

According to latest data from Public Health England shows the current infection rate in Herefordshire is 87.1 cases per 100,000 people.

This is down from 93.4 the week before.

The figures, for the seven days to February 22, are based on tests carried out in laboratories (pillar one of the Government’s testing programme) and in the wider community (pillar two).

Data for the most recent four days (February 23-26) has been excluded as it is incomplete and does not reflect the true number of cases.

Of the 315 local areas in England, 55 (17 per cent) have seen a rise in case rates, while 260 (83 per cent) have recorded a fall.

Imperial College states that its projections for hotspots assume no change in interventions and human behaviour has been made since a week before the last observed data. The data was last updated on Wednesday, February 24.

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Imperial College also lists a number of limitations to its predictions.

It explains: "Predictions on this page assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in the local area beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

"An increase in cases in an area can be due to an increase in testing. The model currently does not account for this.

"Each area (local authority) is treated independently apart from the overall Rt estimate for its region. Thus the epidemic in a region is neither affected by nor affects any other region. It also does not include importations from other countries.

"The population within an area is considered to be homogeneous - i.e. all individuals are considered equally likely to be affected by the disease progression."